Bad News Awaits NDA In Bihar

Suddenly, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to find itself in a Catch-22 situation in Bihar, surrounded by a complex web of failed tactics, rapidly shifting electoral patterns and a slippery ground beneath its feet. Even its poll planks seem to be not clicking in the manner in which it had hoped they would, like providing the mythical Corona vaccine ‘free’ to the people in Bihar.

With an incumbent chief minister on a sticky wicket, how far will the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi succeed in a highly polarized state, remains a puzzling conjecture. Ironically, the current situation has only emerged in recent days, because in the pre-poll scenario it all seemed hunky dory for the NDA, and they were pretty sure that they will romp home comfortably in the polls, and Nitish Kumar will therefore continue his reign after 15 years of rule in Patna.

So what happened in a state which is credited by seasoned journalists as politically extremely smart and sharp, though entrenched caste equations, loyalties and hierarchies, and remnants of feudalism still rule the roost in the hinterland? What is the reading on the ground?

There is a view that Modi’s TRP ratings remain reasonably high despite the economic slump and mass unemployment, though there is no survey which can prove that. It is also a view that the collapse of the administrative and health system post corona and the migration of thousands of migrant workers to Bihar, and the ‘reverse migration’ thereafter post lockdown, and the crass insensitivity and inefficiency displayed by an inactive Nitish Kumar government, will not really make an impact on the voting patterns. Indeed, this remains an open question.

According to reports, even insiders in the ruling alliance feel that the migrant workers carry a grudge against the Bihar government, and their sense of hurt is bad news for the NDA. Several jobless workers have finally returned back to an uncertain future in the cities, knowing fully well that they will neither be protected if attacked by the virus, or in terms of employment and an economic cushion in their home state.

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The important factor going against the incumbent chief minister is that he seems to have lost a lot of credibility in terms of administration and ideology. He won the last assembly elections in alliance with the RJD of Lalu Prasad and Congress. Despite the RJD being a bigger party in terms of MLAs, Lalu was magnanimous to give the chief ministership to Nitish Kumar. Earlier to that Nitish Kumar did a great hullaballoo about keeping a ‘safe distance’ from Modi, presumably to protect his alleged ‘secular’ credentials, and so that the minorities choose to vote for him, especially the poor Muslims he had cultivated along with extremely backward castes and Maha-Dalits. So much so, ‘Sushasan Babu’ positioned himself as a PM contender to Modi, though he chose to stay in the NDA government even after the Gujarat killings of 2002, even while someone like Ram Vilas Paswan quit the government in protest, only to rejoin later under Modi.

Now, the late Dalit leader’s son, Chirag Paswan, is giving a hard time to Nitish Kumar, attacking him directly, while fielding candidates against the Janata Dal (U) across the state. So much so, several BJP leaders, either rebels or those denied tickets, have been fielded by Chirag Paswan. There are reports that the upper castes, who are with the BJP, have chosen to vote for Chirag Paswan’s candidates wherever JD (U) candidates are contesting. There are also unconfirmed reports that Chirag Paswan, who hails Modi as his leader, has been propped up by the BJP to cut Nitish Kumar to size, despite the BJP rhetoric of backing him as the next chief minister.

In this dubious strategic shifts, finally, the loser will be the ageing current chief minister who seems to be losing his cool even in his own rallies, whereby he has been heckled in some of them. “Don’t vote for me, go away,” he shouted back at the hecklers from the dais – not a happy sign for a chief minister.

Besides, all the good he has done in the past, like law and order improvement, lack of corruption, prohibition, and schemes for women such as cycles for school girls, seems a distant page from the distant past. His current tenure, especially after he betrayed Lalu Yadav, has been lackluster. He has been hemmed in by his partner, the BJP, even while the ex-PM contender easily gave away all his high moral ground to the superiority of Modi in Delhi.

The prohibition card has boomeranged, and women are not at all happy with it. Apparently alcohol is easily available in the black market, as is the underground reality wherever alcohol is banned. Women complain that earlier their husbands were drinking outside, now they drink in the ‘safe confines’ of their homes. Poor households run by women are feeling terribly let down.

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The roads which he built in his first term seem to have cracked after 15 years and the bureaucracy he trusts seems to have lost its moorings. Corruption has apparently returned from the back door. However, the starkest is the bitter realism of mass unemployment and abysmal lack of industrial or economic growth in Bihar in the last 15 years. Voters who were children when Nitish Kumar started his innings are now young adults and they don’t find any spark of optimism in their own state, either in education, health services, social infrastructure or employment generation.

Poor communities and landless labourers continue to migrate, and often face harsh and difficult circumstances, with low, unpredictable wages and no fundamental rights. The stagnation in agriculture and old structures of oppression continue to simmer in many places, even as some things just refuse to change. Dalits and the extremely poor with aspirations find no scaffolding or avenue to grow out of their unhappy reality.

Tejeshwi Yadav has promised 10 lakh jobs. It has clicked across the youth, forcing rival NDA to promising a higher number of jobs. The young leader’s rallies are attracting huge crowds, but rallies are not the real indicators of voting patterns. The emergence of the Left, especially the CPI-ML (Liberation), in almost 25 seats, with its strong and committed base among the poorest and the working class, has given an impetus to the Mahagathbandhan of RJD, Congress and the Left. The CPI-ML can help in scores of constituencies, and its radical presence itself has given a distinct pro-poor flavour to the opposition alliance.

With Nitish slipping, will Modi take the centre-stage, and will Article 370 and China threat click? Recent history shows that in assembly elections, Modi’s popularity does not work. Be it Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, even in Manipur, Gujarat, Goa and Bihar, the BJP did not do well in the assembly elections. In some states they formed the government by hijacking MLAs, as in Goa, Manipur and MP. So the Modi card might have limited use in a state which had actually voted overwhelming against the BJP and its supreme leader in the last assembly polls.

BJP Is Now Dominant NDA Partner In Bihar

Ever since the two parties joined hands over 20 years ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party has played second fiddle to the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (U) in Bihar. The saffron party depended on Nitish Kumar’s clean image and charisma to ride to power in the eastern state where it had negligible presence.

As Bihar prepares for its next round of assembly elections now, there’s a perceptible change in the equation between the two parties. With Nitish Kumar facing massive anti-incumbency after 15 years in power and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity at an all-time high, the tables have turned in favour of the BJP. Today, it is the Janata Dal (U) chief who needs the BJP to retain power.

Well aware that it is on a strong footing this time, the BJP is all set to drive a hard bargain with the Janata Dal (U) during its seat-sharing negotiations to be able to emerge as the single largest party post-polls which would open up the possibility of the saffron party laying claim to the chief minister’s post. On the face of it, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president J.P.Nadda have publicly declared that the coming assembly polls will be fought under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. The reason for this is obvious. The BJP obviously does not wish to alienate the Janata Dal (U) chief and push him to the rival camp.

But the BJP is also in no mood to concede the upper hand to its alliance partner. The saffron party has, over the years, used the Janata Dal (U) to expand its footprint in Bihar and it believes it is now in a position to emerge as the dominant force in the state. The saffron party’s Bihar unit has, therefore, been urging its Central leaders for several months now that the BJP should make a strong pitch for the top executive post in the state, especially since Nitish Kumar is personally on shaky ground. The BJP hardliners have been at pains to point out that the ground situation in Bihar has undergone a sea change and with the BJP’s improved presence it can dictate terms to its alliance partner.

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For the first time in his ruling terms, Nitish Kumar is facing mounting public anger. His government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the migrant labour crisis, rising unemployment, rampant corruption and the damage wrought by the recent floods have all combined to push Nitish Kumar on the backfoot. It is to deflect attention from his government’s failures that the Bihar chief minister, with dollops of help from the BJP, has shifted the political discourse to the Sushant Singh Rajput case, currently being probed by the Central Bureau of Investigation. The dates for the election are yet to be announced but the state is already dotted with posters of the actor with the caption “Na bhoole hain, no bhoolne denge”, a clear indication of how the poll campaign will pan out in the days ahead.

Even as Nitish Kumar is fighting with his back to the wall, he has to deal with another irritant. An ally – Lok Janshakti Party’s Chirag Paswan – has launched an offensive against the Bihar chief minister. Paswan junior has, in recent weeks, taken several potshots at Nitish Kumar and has even threatened to contest the Bihar assembly poll on his own.

As the anchor of the National Democratic Alliance, it would be expected that the BJP would step in to silence the LJP leader. But it has made no serious move in that direction. This has given rise to speculation that Paswan junior is acting on the behest of the saffron party. It is understood that his barbs are essentially aimed at garnering a larger share of seats for his party, which works to the BJP’s advantage. If the share of Janata Dal (U) seats is reduced and the BJP contests on more seats, it stands a greater chance of emerging as the single largest party.

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While Nitish Kumar finds himself in the doghouse, the Modi magic remains undiminished. Despite the Centre’s poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic, the slump in the economy and the standoff with China, people in Bihar, as elsewhere in the country, are not ready to blame the Modi government for the multiple crises facing the country. They are willing to overlook the Centre’s failures and even justify them on the ground that these problems are not confined to India but are a worldwide phenomenon. Modi’s image of a Hindu Hirday Samrat and the BJP’s majoritarian agenda is more than sufficient reason for them to support him and the saffron party.

If the BJP-Janata Dal (U) combine comes back to power (as it is expected to), the victory will be driven by Modi’s popularity and not Nitish Kumar’s governance record. The ruling coalition will additionally be helped by the disarray in the opposition camp and its inability to throw up a viable alternative. While the Congress has negligible presence in the state. Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav is out of action and his son Tejaswi Yadav is yet to evolve into a mature politician.

Even as the opposition is still debating the terms of building a coalition of like-minded parties, the BJP has already kickstarted its campaign with virtual rallies and is in the process of strengthening its digital infrastructure to connect with the voters. Since there are restrictions on physical campaigning in this election because of the coronavirus pandemic, the BJP has decided to maximise the use of social media and other digital platforms to inform the people about their government’s achievements.

The opposition just does not have the resources, the leadership and the organisation to match the BJP.