Tag: Lok Sabha Elections 2024

‘M’ Factor And Malefactor

The ‘M’ Factor And Malefactor

By Amit Sengupta

He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.
 – Fredrich Nietzsche

A certain obscure proposal is as obscure as the word coined: ‘Moditation’. That it should be added in the English language dictionary, surely, will not make the language richer. It’s like putting the man’s picture on a magazine cover, again and again. As editors, we compulsively avoided doing this.

The obsession with the camera, on many occasions, was witnessed when he visited a plethora of Hindu Gods. So much so, the Gods were often effectively sidelined. This is as much a reflection of an insecure childhood regression, as it is a repetitive act of crass, obsessive narcissism, to hide the deeper flaws in a man’s character.

And the flaws are not simply human flaws – some of them are soaked in the deliberate and documented enactment of collective nightmares of ordinary citizens of India, especially Muslims, in the blood and gore of genocides, as in Gujarat, 2002, and multiple mob-lynching; in the stoic silences of the our brilliant scholars, including opposition politicians, rotting in jails for years; in the everyday injustice which has stalked this unhappy land since the cursed summer of May 2014.

This M word has come to play, after all the other Ms used in this campaign by Mr M, including ‘Mujra’. Why ‘M for Monster’ was missing, would remain a mystery. ‘Mujra’ in Urdu and Hindi means salutations – paying one’s respect. It is also a metaphor for dancing girls of yore, who would dance on renditions from the finest Indian classical dances, with a feudal audience in rapt attention, who, were, often, the patrons of these forms of performing arts. Like the glorious and great life and times of Gandhi, a global icon since the freedom movement, which he has so predictably missed, of course, in Mr M’s ‘Entire Political Science’, even this word would have only a perverse meaning.

Like a fellow journalist cryptically commented on Saturday: “Perhaps he knows he has sinned, and sinned so much with not an iota of shame or introspection. That is why, this melodrama of one-day meditation with an army of cameras and security persons surrounding him. You just cannot eliminate your own past, can you? And where have you heard of meditation in front of so many cameras, situated on strategic angles, eyes-open-wide-shut? It’s morbid. Vivekananda would be turning in his secular grave!”

Many journos, for instance, are wondering: did he continue the so called meditation even in the thick of the tidal night, under flashlights and the cameras clicking continuously? Did he not eat and drink, or go to the washroom? Did he not think for once that his vote margin might be drastically reduced in Varanasi this time? Did he, or did he not, check, if the exit polls were ‘managed’ so that he can draw legitimacy in his final foray into power, till he joins the other Ms of his own making – the Margdarshaks – sidelined and dumped into the garbage can of BJP’s own dubious history?

Vivekananda famously said that you don’t have to do temple-hopping – you can find your God while playing in the football field!  He said in one of his discourses: “…Then we shall understand that we ourselves are groping in darkness, and are leading others to grope in the same darkness, then we shall cease from sectarianism, quarrel, arid fight. Ask a man who wants to start a sectarian fight, ‘Have you seen God? Have you seen the Atman? If you have not, (then) what right have you to preach His name – you, walking in darkness, trying to lead me into the same darkness – the blind leading the blind, and both falling into the ditch’?”

If he wanted to turn the tide in the last phase of elections in Bengal on June 1, actually, he might lose all the nine seats going for polls on that day. Besides, the BJP might lose big in all the 13 seats in Punjab, and much of Himachal, UP and Bihar. In Varanasi, if he manages a victory with a reduced margin – that itself would signal the final collapse of his biological mythology.

Apart from the Ms, Muslim-bashing, and mythical buffaloes, he and his Man-Fridays did not raise one productive issue stalking the soul of India — farmers, MSP, students, science, health, inflation, mass employment, gender justice, women’s empowerment, the tens of thousands dead during the pandemic when they simply disappeared from the final data, including the dead floating and rotting on the sacred waters of a filthy Ganga. Did he actually clean up the Ganga, as promised, or was it only a fake promise in that fake stretch in the fake touristy terrain of Varanasi, where so many temples were destroyed?

In Varanasi, the city of genius shehnai player, Bismillah Khan, smoking a bidi, as humble as ever, who would play for Goddess Saraswati on the ghats, another counter-narrative is at play. Women have disliked his crude reference of ‘Mujra’. They also hated the public degradation of what is a private and sacred space for Hindu women in India – the ‘Mangalsutra’.

ALSO READ: Different Shades of India’s Electoral Canvas

It’s like how women in Bengal hated it unanimously when he so infamously ridiculed their woman chief minister in a rally: “Didi O Didi!” This thoughtless public speech boomeranged. Mahua Moitra instantly came on TV saying that this is exactly how street-side loafers behave in the towns of Bengal. Indeed, even women in BJP-backed households hated it, and voted against him.

Besides, two other crucial issues have become a bone of contention in Varanasi. One, all the fancy cash-rich projects here have gone to Gujarati contractors. Two, while they were mesmerized in the beginning by the grandiosity of it all, the destruction of many ‘prachin’ Hindu temples in their deeply religious space has gone down badly for the people here. Even the Hindu Mahasabha, for some inexplicable reason, seems to have gone against him. This is bad news for Mr M.

So, no real issues, for the PM. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge summed it up: “Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about ‘mandir-masjid’ and other ‘divisive issues’ 421 times, referred to himself in the third person 758 times, referred to the Congress 232 times, and mentioned the INDIA bloc 573 times, but did not refer to the issue of unemployment and inflation even once in his election speeches in the past 15 days.”

A pained, former prime minister, Manmohan Singh, penned a letter to Punjab, before the final polls on January 1, in which he said that the current PM has indulged in the “most vicious form of hate speeches that are purely divisive in nature”. He said: “I have been keenly following the political discourse during this election campaign. Modiji has indulged in the most vicious form of hate speeches, which are purely divisive in nature. Modiji is the first prime minister to lower the dignity of public discourse, and thereby the gravity of the office of the prime minister.”

In contrast, none of the INDIA bloc leaders, even in their vehement criticism of the BJP, ever used a foul word, attacked any caste or community, or made personal remarks. They only raised crucial issues close to the heart of our suffering people, the deprived, marginalized, oppressed. They gave voice to the voiceless. They promised real, doable promises. They never said that they will make India a superpower, a trillion dollar economy, bring back black money from abroad, and will deposit Rs 15 lakh in every bank account. They also said that June 4 will mark the end of Mr M’s regime.

That would be the beginning of the end for a man drunk with power – who saw nothing but his own, artificially glorified, photo-shopped, self-image soaked in the eternal catharsis of narcissism. As Vivekananda said, and he never claimed himself to be prophet: … “You, walking in darkness, trying to lead me into the same darkness — the blind leading the blind, and both falling into the ditch.”

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Modi the Biggest Factor in India’s Election Results

Modi Will be the Biggest Factor in India’s Election Results

By Sanjoy Narayan

There are only two elected Indian politicians who are in positions of power today that have never been in the opposition. The first is Narendra Modi, 73, who became India’s Prime Minister in 2014. Before that, for more than 12 years, Modi served as chief minister of Gujarat. In electoral politics, Modi has never been outside of a ruling regime–neither in Gujarat nor at the Centre.

The only other politician to have a similar achievement is Naveen Patnaik, chief minister of Odisha. Patnaik, 77, became chief minister of the state in 2000 and has held that office for nearly a quarter of a century, never ever sitting in the opposition benches.

This year elections are being held for both, the Lok Sabha where the outcome will determine whether Modi will get to serve a third term; and, simultaneously, in the Odisha assembly where the outcome will decide whether Patnaik gets a sixth consecutive term as chief minister.

Now after six phases, the Lok Sabha elections are almost done and dusted–voting in 486 of the 543 seats have been completed, and only 57 seats remain to be voted for on the seventh and final phase on 1 June.

For all practical purposes, the elections are over and India has decided who will form the next government in Delhi. The last phase, whose 57 seats are mainly the remaining ones in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Bengal, and Odisha (where the Lok Sabha polls are synced to the local assembly polls), will only decide the margins by which the winning side will be ahead.

For Modi, a third term looks assured (caveat: you never can be absolutely certain, anything can happen in India’s elections) but by how much will his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies win is the question. They won 353 seats of the 543 in Lok Sabha in 2019. Will they get less or more this time?

Back to that in a moment. What about Patnaik? Odisha’s assembly elections have been synchronized with the Lok Sabha elections in the state and the last phase of the four-phase polling will also be on June 1. While Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has 111 seats in the assembly and the BJP has 22, there has been much hype from leaders of the latter party that they could oust the long-serving veteran and his government. But Patnaik is well-entrenched in the state and even if the BJP manages to gain more Lok Sabha seats there (Odisha has 21 Lok Sabha seats; in 2019, BJD won 12 and the BJP won 8), it is unlikely that it can make a huge improvement in its assembly seats tally. So Patnaik too could likely get another term to run his state.

The BJP’s USP for Voters is Modi

Frenzied speculation is a common accompaniment to Indian elections. And every five years when there are general elections, the general excitement about politics peaks. In the last couple of phases of the ongoing elections, the discourse has also turned unsavoury. Both sides have lobbed attacks on each other but the spotlight has focused sharply on Modi who has been in the centrestage with his relentless campaigning during which he has addressed dozens of rallies; granted interviews to several news channels (Indian has hundreds of those), and been hyperactive on social media.

Even to a casual observer of election campaigning in India, where nearly a billion voters are eligible to vote, it is obvious which leader stands out in the entire spectrum of political parties. It is Modi. There is really none other that can be compared to the salience he commands.

For the BJP, the single most important selling point to voters is Modi, never mind which part of the country it is: whether it is in the states in the north and west where the party is the strangest; whether it is in the south where it is weakest; or whether it is in the east where it wants to turn its foothold into a more comfortable perch. Modi has been the face of the party’s campaigning and there is really no one else whose visibility is comparable.

Modi is a powerful orator; his speeches are persuasive; and he knows the right button to press. He alludes to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as Shahzada or prince, a reference to the party’s dynastic devolvement of leadership; and he has conjured up images of the opposition parties dancing mujra, a performance by women originating during Mughal rule in India, where the elite class and local rulers frequented venues where courtesans danced.

At other times during his campaigning, he has overturned allegations by his rivals that he intended to amend India’s Constitution by charging them, instead, of trying to bring in religion-based reservations and of appeasement of communal groups. 

In interviews, speeches, and other public interactions, Modi often mentions how he is tirelessly devoted to the progress of India and its citizens and often proudly cites his indefatigable spirit. Recently he said that he owed his urja or energy to divine reasons and not because of biological inheritance of those attributes.

Some of these have stoked controversy and ridicule, especially in social media chatter. That probably doesn’t matter. Users of X or similar platforms are not the audience that Modi wants to target. A reference to divine intervention or to someone who is ostensibly doing the task that a supreme being wants him to do are things that can have an effect on his real target audience that is quite different from the ridicule that his “liberal” detractors react with. In fact, the derision that he or others in the BJP target at the so-called “liberal” elite is lapped up by the audience he really targets–the audience whose votes really matter to him.

Can the M-factor Trump the Negatives?

It’s fairly well articulated by legions of analysts, psephologists, and political trend watchers that this time the BJP and its allies face the risk of slipping even in some of the states that are considered their bastion. In Maharashtra, where NDA won 41 of 48 seats in 2019, things are up in the air after two regional parties split down their middle and the dynamics of electoral alliance became complex. In Uttar Pradesh, where it had 62 of the 80 seats, rival Samajwadi Party, which has an edge this time, can eat into its tally. In Karnataka, where it has 25 out of 28 seats, many expect it to lose because the incumbent Congress state government could sway voters’ decisions. Likewise, in states such as West Bengal, the BJP’s tally could come down from 18 seats that it won in 2019 of the state’s total of 42.

Number crunching can show that if the BJP loses in these states, it could be difficult for it to offset those losses with gains from other states where it is not strong, for example in the south.

Hence, most political journalists and analysts say when the results come out on June 4, the BJP and its allies could get a majority (that is, 272 seats or more) but not as many as the 353 that they had won in 2019.

Yet there could be another thing that could matter: the M-factor. Many believe Modi’s popularity has dipped. Some of those who think so look at social media numbers such as how many people watch YouTube videos of his rallies (the numbers are lower than what they were five years ago).

Those are the wrong numbers to look at. The BJP’s electoral fight is asymmetrical to its rivals. Modi fights the elections as if they were presidential elections. When he campaigns he doesn’t campaign for his party’s candidate in a constituency. His message to voters is clear: By voting for the BJP candidate in your constituency you are voting for me; and if you believe in me, vote for the BJP. 

With no comparable personality or prime ministerial candidate, the BJP’s rivals are unable to match Modi’s format of campaigning. The INDI alliance of multiple opposition parties has the Congress’ Mallikarjun Kharge as its leader but does he have any brand recall among voters that is even comparable to Modi? Rahul Gandhi is seen as the face of Congress and the opposition’s campaign. A comparison of his popularity with Modi’s would be superfluous.

The question, therefore, is that when the results are out on 4 June, will Modi’s magic cast its spell on the numbers that the BJP and its allies finally get? We’ll know soon.

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Rahul Gandhi as Leader of Oppn

How Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Became a Referendum on Indian Constitution – II

By Abhishek Srivastava

Neither the BJP nor the Congress should be credited for making the Constitution an electoral issue. There was a third player behind the scenes who did not aspire to claim credit. It was the network of non-government organisations in India, loosely termed as the Civil Society. It started talking about the Constitution proactively after GE 2019 results and later embedded it in its core programme on ‘Constitutional Values’.

The Invisible Hand

It is contextual to note that the civil society that constituted the National Advisory Committee (NAC) of Sonia Gandhi during UPA-1 and UPA-2 governments had worked upon rights-based changes and brought in important legislations like Right to Food, MNREGA, Right to Information, Right to Education, etc. Post-2014, things changed fundamentally when the incumbent regime started using community rights to create communal conflicts. We could easily see this from the right to worship in Sabarimala case to the right to assemble and protest in JNU sloganeering and Kathua gangrape case.

Earlier, constitutionally guaranteed rights were aligned with ethical and moral considerations. After Narendra Modi led NDA came to power, his supporters started using rights for immoral and unethical concerns that created a culture of impunity for the violators of constitutional rights.

As feminist Ranjana Padhi writes in her seminal article, “In a sociological sense, a collective conscience is understood to have emerged when morally less critical societies gradually evolved certain basic beliefs and tenets, which they collectively affirmed as the highest common good. In the prevalent social and cultural ethos, there is the manufacturing of an altered collective conscience to suit a majoritarian agenda. This is being done by injuring, damaging, and reducing the worth of the “other”. This made-to-order collective conscience is employed at majoritarian will. The Preamble of the Constitution affirms “We the People” but the ascendance of majoritarianism is unmaking rules and laws for the “other’. Addressing today’s refabrication of the collective conscience requires discerning the strands of hysteria whipped up craftily each time”.

So, the myth of collective conscience post-2014 made rights-based regime almost redundant by turning it into a battle of identities and binaries. This not only disturbed the highest seats of power in the judiciary but in the civil society too, confirms Satyam Shrivastava, a forest rights expert and a social activist. He says, “Back in 2019 many social leaders and judicial leaders were deliberating on how to work upon constitutional values, not rights”.

There was an intense internal debate and deliberations in the civil society on how to translate an intangible thing like constitutional value into tangible action. And then came COVID, when all constitutional rights were suspended during lockdown in the name of protecting the citizenry from a deadly virus. It was an opportune moment in disguise for the civil society to change gears.

When things returned to normal, dozens of organisations started fellowships and training programs on the Constitutional values throughout the country. For example, as of date, more than 1700 fellows have been trained in constitutional values through various fellowships. These fellows are individuals, organisational leaders, community workers, activists, journalists and cultural activists.

He says, “If a single fellow would have talked to a hundred people, just imagine the impact of this initiative”!  And the numbers are increasing. More and more NGOs and civil society organisations are now aligning their projects with constitutional values.

Satyam says, “It was heartening to see hundreds of social workers engaged in the elections in Maharashtra. I have just returned from my visit. I have seen people working day and night to ensure the participation of voters and educate them on the issues. They do not belong to any political party but they have taken the election in their stride”.     

Most recently, Vikas Samwad, a non-government entity in Madhya Pradesh advertised its constitutional values fellowship for journalists. The stipend is handsome. A few organisations that have already run the fellowship are trying to build upon it by transforming the workshop content into digital form for wider dissemination. One such organisation We, The People Abhiyan is curiously named from the Preamble.

The Three ‘C’s

India Development Review (IDR) is Asia’s largest independent media platform that advances knowledge and insights on philanthropy and social impact. Halima Ansari and Saba Kohli Dave have rightly explained in their article on IDR that “constitution is a journey, not an event”. In their article, the writer duo suggest that “civil society and the government can ensure that constitutional values get translated into their work with communities on ground”.

This translation of Constitutional to Communitarian has many dimensions, one of which is Cultural. They write, “Connecting one’s local cultural heritage to the values in the Preamble is another way of nurturing acceptance of the Constitution”. This understanding was badly missing in the left-liberal intellectual discourse. Traditionally the left-liberal practice has been limited to the slogans of Qaumi Ekta and Ganga-Jamuni sanskriti. Even during GE 2014 when the fearmongering of Modi coming to power was at its peak, social activists were campaigning only in Muslim localities of Varanasi. They never cared to engage the Hindu voters.

This is one of the main reasons why the third ’C’ (culture) became a monopoly of the right-wing in the last few decades. The ideology of the RSS is called ‘cultural nationalism’. Any ideological counter to the RSS has always overlooked the element of ‘culture’ and primarily focussed on economic and political factors. Due to this, social activists have consistently faced hurdles in engaging with the everyday socio-cultural practices of majority of people and communities. We have witnessed a spate of attacks on social activists and journalists in the last few years on issues ranging from emotional to cultural. On the other hand, socio-political space for engagement has also shrunk, not to talk of the dissent itself.

One of the initial responses to this ‘cultural’ crisis could be witnessed in Maharashtra but it was limited to Dalits and Pasmanda. In North India, a novel initiative was undertaken by Dr Lenin Raghuvanshi, a human rights activist of Varanasi, when he organised the Benares Convention in 2014 just after Modi came to power. This event was almost ignored by the civil society of Delhi. The well-articulated ideological context and background of the Benares Convention can be read here. He continued with the idea of blending the question of culture and constitution with his second initiative Neo-Dalit Convention organised just before general elections 2019. This convention saw the participation of a few prominent faces like Gujarat MLA Jignesh Mewani and senior journalist Urmilesh. Still, the question of culture remained an outcast in the civil society’s fraternal deliberations on Constitution.

The Benaras Convention 2014

Dr Lenin says, “We are dealing with corporate as well as communal fascism. The communal issue is not only inter-religious, it is intra-religious too. When communitarianism imagines its identity vis-à-vis the opposition of an ‘Other’, it immediately becomes communal. Therefore secularism also entails working on caste, class and patriarchal divisions within a community”.

This question of intra-religious secular practice was raised prominently in a couple of meetings organised by Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind in the run-up to General Elections 2024. With the events unfolding, this understanding has gradually seeped down the social activism circles recently. The now widespread constitutional value fellowships have helped a lot in emphasising the political significance of intra-religious communitarian work on caste, class and patriarchy. 

The coming together of Culture, Community and Constitution is working, as we have witnessed in these elections. In Uttar Pradesh, the non-Yadav OBC and the non-Jatav SC block co-opted by the BJP in the last few years is now breaking away. This is the start of a new social formation. This, coupled with the disillusionment of the RSS cadre has enraged the BJP.

Change?

Winds of change may deceive too. With the 24×7 onslaught of reels, short videos and WhatsApp messages upon our collective minds, it is never easy to speak categorically about what our senses feel and much more difficult to comprehend what is being told to us.

All talk of ‘change’ started with the low voter turnout in the initial two phases. Both sides claimed that low voter turnout was in their favour, but somehow the snowball effect leading us to the last phase of polls has created some sort of consensus that the incumbent government is not coming back. After a series of Prashant Kishor interviews, veteran psephologists like Sanjay Kumar and Yogendra Yadav have made course corrections and now predicting around 250 seats for the BJP.

If the Constitution is a journey, elections are at most events. The final outcome of elections is always a situation that never changes the prevalent but rather consolidates it irrespective of which party comes to power. The process is significant, not the situation. In this regard, the electoral process of GE 2024 has been qualitatively different from all elections held to date. After the Constitution of India came into effect on January 26 1950 it has never been the question and issue of the masses. This election has challenged its inertness. 

As INDIA candidate from Karakat, Bihar Comrade Rajaram Singh says in an interview with Dr. Gopal Krishna, “This election is a referendum on the Constitution”. This was a profound takeaway statement, but not the final truth because this is happening for the first time in India. This election is certainly the first referendum on the Constitution, but not the last.

The struggle to save the Constitution will continue on the ground. But hypothetically speaking- what if our government changes on June 4th? Will the need to save the Constitution end? The problem is more substantial. I would like to end by quoting Slavoj Zizek:

“How do we transform the basic coordinates of our social life, from our economy to our culture, so that democracy as free, collective decision-making becomes actual- not just a ritual of legitimizing decisions made elsewhere”?

(This is the concluding part of the series. You may read the Part I Here)

Lok Sabha Elections 2024 a Referendum on Constitution

How Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Became a Referendum on Indian Constitution – I

By Abhishek Srivastava

Amid an election that seemed highly dull, unprecedently non-polarised and sundry, the interiors of central Uttar Pradesh had reached the boiling point after two phases of polling. It was not an easy task to assess this heat from outside. The drama that unfolded in front of this reporter in the Jajpur village of district Sitapur is representative of the shifting political paradigm in the land that has been the fortress of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since 2014.

Making of an Argument

We entered the village from the southern entry point which usually inhabits lower castes in the rural geography of UP. Here it was the Pasi community. It is considered as the core voter of the BJP. Strolling in the narrow bylanes destroyed by the yet-to-start Jal Jeevan mission pipeline project, we were accompanied by a group of women and children. We reached an open space near a handpump and sat there for a chat. There were a couple of youths and some elderly people from the same community. They joined in. Within a few minutes, a bike appeared from nowhere and stopped abruptly. Seeing him, women flung to one corner of the street and the elders too became uneasy. Someone whispered. “Aa gaye pandit mahaul kharab karne” (Here comes the Brahmin to spoil the atmosphere)!

The bare-bodied man riding the bike was a Brahmin in his fifties. He enquired about us. After we briefly introduced ourselves, he started talking about himself very loudly that he had come to the village for his daughter who was going to sit for the NEET exams. He boasted of living in Delhi for many years. He had built a house in Lucknow and came to the village only when it was urgent. He advised us not to talk to ‘these’ people as they speak ill about the government despite enjoying free ration and amenities. After a long silence from the Pasi side, suddenly a dissenting voice came from a youth.

He commented, “True, last time he came to distribute Ram Mandir invitations. Now he is here for his daughter’s exam. Let the paper get leaked, then he would know for once and always why we speak ill of the government”. Within seconds of this reaction, the Brahmin started abusing them and people rose against him. The conversation had got ugly and now we realised that this man on the bike was drunk. We remained mute spectators until he fled with speaking of the ‘consequences’.

It was the most unexpected real-life dramatics, but the argument put forward by the youth had caught our ears. He said to the Brahmin, “Tum log abhi mansik gulami kar rahe ho. Jis din samvidhan padh loge gulami ko tod doge. Tumhari galti nahin hai” (You are mental slaves. Once you read the Constitution, you will break away. It is not your fault). Later he told us that he has been a victim of the paper leak twice and works at a computer shop in the nearby market.

A couple of days later NEET paper got leaked out. We were still in UP. Nothing could be said about the Brahmin of Jajpur or that youth but the narrative evolved around paper leaks in UP’s villages is a readymade takeaway for anyone interested in decoding the reasons behind the uproar over “Save the Constitution” in these elections.

Quoting the words of that Jajpur youth, “This government wants us to keep begging for five-kilogram ration. That is why it deliberately leaks exam papers. So that no one gets the job and the government gets bailed out of the obligation of giving reservations. The paper leak is directly linked with the BJP’s intent of ending the reservation guaranteed by the Constitution”.

Constitution as an Electoral Issue

Those who have not been to the field will never know that this General Election was being fought on the issue of saving the Constitution from the very first day and even much before that. It seems strikingly vague and has never been a part of our collective experience that elections are fought over the issue of a Constitution in any democratic Republic. In fact, the Constitution was not an explicit issue even in the LOk Sabha elections held just after the Emergency imposed by Indira Gandhi. It was the authoritarian character of the leader and state repression in question.

How and when did the Constitution become an electoral issue? Is it just due to statements from a few BJP leaders about changing the Constitution and ending reservations, as D. Raja claims in his article published after two phases of polls? Karnataka’s Anant Hegde was the very first leader who spoke of ending the Constitution in the run-up to elections. He was mysteriously denied a ticket and the party distanced itself from his statement. But after him, there have appeared around half a dozen similar statements, from BJP’s Meerut candidate Arun Govil to Ayodhya candidate Lallu Singh, Diya Kumari, Jyoti Mirdha and the newest turncoat Pramod Krishnam.

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Was the BJP aware of ground swell on the Constitution? In all these cases, it seems as if the BJP never tried to reign in its leaders. And actions attract consequences, especially when it is election time.  Lallu Singh was seen pleading to the voters that the video of his viral statement was fabricated and fake. Anant Hegde had to retract.

Talking to hundreds of people in more than a dozen Lok Sabha Constituencies of UP across various caste compositions reveals that the reservation guaranteed by the Constitution is just one strand of the larger fear. Also, people did not mention any specific leader while expressing their fear. They have their reasons to save the Constitution. Some arguments are beyond our comprehension.

To cite a few, one upper-caste lady was fearful of BJP again coming to power because she would lose her right to report FIR after being beaten by her inebriated husband; a young OBC girl said she would lose her right to walk and work freely; a daily wager in his forties was of the apprehension that ending the Constitution would mean an end to the rural employment guarantee act MNREGA.

Mahesh Yadav, a core voter of the Samajwadi Party from Lucknow says, “This time BJP will end elections if it returns. This is the last opportunity for us to save everything”. This fear was echoed in the Loksabha constituencies from Fatehpur Sikri to Lakhimpur Kheri i.e. the complete stretch comprising Bundelkhand and Central UP districts where BJP had secured 26 out of 28 seats in GE 2019.

The Barometer

When does an issue become an electoral issue? When it overarches other issues and breaks traditional loyalties towards political parties. If things have allegedly boiled down to the Constitution, the obvious barometer lies at the two opposing ends: first, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cadre that has been politically trained by taking the oath to the Indian Constitution and the other, the RSS cadre that has historically never accepted the Republic and its Constitution, as it is.

The litmus test of the Constitution as an electoral issue passed at both sites. It may be unacceptable or indigestible for someone to vouch for the RSS cadre breaking its loyalty with the BJP, but then read the recent statement of BJP President JP Nadda that says, “We have grown, more capable now… the BJP runs itself”. Before coming to the RSS, let us look into the “Mission Villages” of UP.

Kanshiram, the stalwart of contemporary Dalit politics in India had adopted hundreds of villages and transformed them for the cause of Ambedkarite thought and emancipation. These “mission villages” still exist, mostly with a Bauddha Vihar and idols of Kanshiram and Ambedkar. These villages voted en mass for BSP but they had decided to vote for the SP-Congress alliance in this election. Why? 

An octogenarian Ambedkarite from Mohanlalganj constituency Sunderlal Bharti aka ‘Netaji’ says, “We know that Behenji has nothing to do with these elections except retaining her votes. We will see her in 2027 assembly elections. This time we vote for the constitution. Every BSP cadre understands this much politics”.

His village Kevalpur resounds. Be it Pasi, Raidasi or other sub-castes of Dalits, they were seen inclined towards the alliance, not BSP. Even some Jatav voters were talking of voting for the alliance to save the Constitution.  

A close confidant of Mayawati confirms this when he says, “That is why Akash Anand was dumped in the mid-course. He was disturbing and confusing our voters with his fiery speeches. We are just eying 19% of our traditional vote share, no seat this time. Our real battle is in 2027 when SP will get decimated and we will be in direct contest with the BJP”. 

Akash Anand, the young face of BSP 2.0 launched his electoral campaign from the Nagina constituency of UP in April first week and immediately caught the eye of the storm when he was booked for a speech in Sitapur. After that FIR he was asked to sit back. Mayawati publicly said that he was still ‘immature’. Media had then speculated that BSP voters would get disillusioned by this action and vote for the BJP.

On the contrary, Bharti says, “It was a good decision. Anyways we knew where to vote. Behenji knows tactics”. And then he asks, “Aap tactics jaante hain?” Tactical voting has been the feature of BSP politics since its inception.

This is also true of the RSS, the parent body of the BJP. RSS has been working for the BJP for such a long time that the opposition, especially Rahul Gandhi equates both in his speeches. But it is not reflected in RSS cadres’ conversations, nor do voters on the ground talk synonymously of both. And theoretically too, RSS does not always work for the BJP. This time the difference is stark

Manoj Gupta, an ex-president of BJP and four-decades-old RSS cadre from Bundelkhand said, “In the SP government we had ample space to fight for our cause. We protested and even forced the administration to nab corrupt SP leaders who were later sent to jail. In the BJP regime, we find the space of dissent shrinking”.

It was an unusual statement from a BJP functionary. He kept on talking about the illegal mining and timber trade in Bundelkhand. He was angry with the local BJP MP and MLA’s. In the last ten years of BJP regime, he complained that nothing had changed but the right to dissent was under direct attack. 

The same complaint was voiced by the upper-caste RSS cadre from Etawah who teaches at a college, “I tried to bring in some academic changes; secured a research project for the college, organised a national level seminar. Immediately I became a thorn in the powers be. They were corrupt leaders. I complained to the local MP. Nothing happened. Finally, I manoeuvred and now things are smooth. I have shut up my mouth”.    

What about the vote? Gupta, sitting in his one-bedroom house said, “This is the last time. Just for the nation. No more after this. 2027 will see a revolt”. Others half a dozen men accompanying us on evening tea and each one affiliated with the RSS opined that they were now exhausted with the internal corruption of Sangh and BJP. The city in charge of the organisation said, “No space for good and committed people left here. We are not going to campaign this time. Will decide on the voting day what to do”.

Constitution never came literally in these conversations but the shrinking space for dissent and protest was significant. And this is throughout UP. Some caste considerations are also playing a role in this dissatisfaction. A senior journalist said, “Most of the BJP and RSS functionaries are from the same caste as the Chief Minister. This has made committed RSS workers hostile”.  BSP has played upon this dissatisfaction by fielding Brahmin candidates on those seats where RSS has gone cold.

An old RSS functionary from PM Modi’s constituency Varanasi revealed that it had planned to boycott the BJP in 2019. In fact, the widespread destruction caused by the Kashi Vishwanath corridor had left many old RSS functionaries disgruntled. Many had lost their homes and shops around it but the internal dissent was not enough to minimally affect the results. This time the rift has become global.    

This may be the reason that Mohan Bhagwat has openly called for not celebrating 100 years of RSS in 2025. The statement came as a surprise just before the first phase because the organisation had chalked out a vast plan for centenary celebrations in March third week when the highest body Akhil Bhartiya Pratinidhi Sabha met in Nagpur. After that, the low voter turnout in successive polls indicated BJP voters’ disillusionment and an inactive RSS. Finally, JP Nadda’s statement confirmed the impending divorce between BJP and RSS, if it is to be believed.

Whatever the case, the cadre of BSP and RSS both are facing the heat of an authoritarian regime. The extent and intent may differ in both cases but this has made space for the Constitution to fill in as an overarching issue of GE 2024. But this has not happened overnight. Discourse over the Constitution started simmering in 2019 and gained momentum after the COVID-induced lockdown was lifted. 

(This is the first article of a two-part series on the subject)

Read The Part II Here

What if The Polls Are Rigged

What if The Polls Are Rigged?

By Amit Sengupta

We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together Headpiece filled with straw.
Alas! Our dried voices, when We whisper together Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass or rats’ feet over broken glass In our dry cellar
 – The Hollow Men by TS Eliot

In a poll season of no waves, hot winds are blowing in the scorching heat. There is no respite in this daily furnace, especially for sweat-soaked bodies of hardworking daily-wagers — men, women, children. Like a thousand venomous vipers slithering on the burning streets. And, then arrives, another straw in the wind! A straw as stuffed, as un-poetic, and as shallow, like the perennial, earthly reincarnations of ‘Hollow Men’!

From one God to another in a season of hate-speak and double-speak, after the 5th phase, thus spake the incumbent prime minister of India: “Till my mother was alive, I had the impression that perhaps my birth was a biological one. After her demise, when I view after assimilating all the experiences, I am convinced that God has sent me.” (Interview, News 18. Telegraph, May 23, 2024) “I am nothing, only an instrument through which God has decided to achieve and so whenever I do something I believe that God wants to get it done…

Speaking to News 24, he said: “…Possibly, God only has sent me for some work, for some purpose. And, for the achievement of the purpose, he gives direction, education, ability, energy, inspiration. Call it ‘daivya shakti’ (divine power) or ‘ishwariya shakti’ (godly power); all this is not possible without it…”

These magical powers were testified when his party’s spokesman, Sambit Patra, claimed, yes, that Lord Jagannath of Puri, worships the PM; that he was, a devotee. Certainly, the beautiful dark lord with big, beautiful eyes, flanked by his brother and sister, Subhadra and Balram (Balabhadra), stationed in the sanctum sanctorum of this famous temple near the sea, might have himself descended in the BJP office to confess his most profound secret to Patra! He later said that it was a Freudian slip. Between him and PM-speak, pray, tell us, O God, which one is a slip and which one is not?

In response, the media chief of Congress, Jairam Ramesh, cryptically remarked that it was a sign of impending defeat: “The outgoing prime minister seems to think — he is God. This is an unprecedented level of delusion and arrogance.”

Now, things seem to be turning upside down pretty fast. First, it was God’s-own-prophet branding the entire population of Indian Muslims, all legitimate citizens of this secular democracy, as “infiltrators”, and producers of more children. It only brought back dark memories of “baby-producing factories”, “hum paanch, humaare pachees”, and “kutte ka bachcha” — crushed under a car.  Such statesman-like sublime-speak, of course, was showcased after the State-sponsored Gujarat Genocide of 2002.

Then there were the 5 Ms. Mutton, Machhli, Mughals, Mangalsutra, and, of course, Muslims. They could have added another M: Madrasa. Then, of course, the two, poor, mythical buffaloes – the Congress will snatch away one and give it to the Muslims. Reservation for SC/ST and OBC – Congress will take away that too and give it to the Muslims. (Coming from a party, and the RSS, which has singularly opposed reservation, and were vanguards of the anti-Mandal agitation!)

At Basti, on May 22, the ‘prophet’ said, “This patron of terrorism which once used to make eyes at us, its condition has become such that its people are hard-up even for grain. Pakistan is finished, but its sympathisers, SP and Congress, are busy scaring the country… They say one needs to be scared of Pakistan because it has an atom bomb. Don’t they know what is a 56-inch (chest)? It’s not the weak Congress government… but the strong government of Modi. India does not spare those who try to bully it. India today beats them in their own homes,” he said. (The same, cliched, typically street-brawl narrative, repeated the umpteenth time: “Ghar mein ghus ke maarenge!”

Another short video (IANS) shows the PM, looking tired and not so happy, claiming, using the first person — that ‘Modi’ gave electricity to every village (false), but the Congress and SP will cut your electric connection, that Modi gave water to every home (false), but the Congress and SP will take away the water tap, that they will shut your bank accounts, and snatch away the money!  Delusion?

ALSO READ: Elections 2024 – How Indian Muslims Would Vote

Contrast this with the INDIA bloc campaign. The ‘radical’ Congress manifesto with concrete, living, realistic issues: MSP for farmers, jobs for the jobless, money in the accounts of the poor every month, scrapping of Agniveer, stopping high inflation, blocking crony capitalism of the PM’s best buddy, unleashed since 2014, among other crucial issues dealing with the everyday struggles of the vast masses of India, deprived, marginalized, jobless, malnourished, saving every pie to make a living.

And, most importantly, the reassertion of the sacredness of the Indian Constitution, conceived by Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar. As a counter to the ‘400 paar’ slogan of the BJP, the reaffirmation of the Constitution, the book, which Rahul Gandhi displays in rally after rally, has turned the tide. The awakened poor, especially Dalits, have recognized that this ‘400 paar’ rhetoric is nothing but a ploy to dump the Indian Constitution, a sinister project of the RSS/BJP, who did not participate in the freedom struggle. Besides, they were, essentially, always opposed to the Constitution of India – they ardently love the ‘Manusmriti’ of the Manuwadis in a Nazi-like, ‘One nation, one culture, one religion’ warped utopia.

There are two more crucial issues in the 2024 polls: People’s power, and the assertion of federalism. It is the people who are reasserting the life-affirming doctrines of the freedom and democracy, despite the low-turnout – which is disadvantage BJP. It is the people who are saying, it’s time for a new, different India, without the ‘nafrat ki dukaan’. Enough is enough!

Second is the strong reaction of the regions to a centralized one-man, quasi-dictatorship in the Centre. The federal states are reasserting with a vengeance, and that is a positive sign. From Mamata Banerjee, to Stalin, Arvind Kejriwal, Tejesvi and Akhilesh Yadav, and Siddharamaiah, among others, the regions are saying no to the centralization of democracy. As in the Nehruvian era. Anyway, the South, Punjab and Bengal, including much of the North-east, care two hoots for Hindutva and its vicious hate politics. They live in a higher realm.  

Meanwhile, another undercurrent is flowing strong. That they will fudge the EVMs and declare themselves victorious despite losing the mandate. The Election Commission of India is perhaps the most discredited institution in the current scenario. Surely, they too can sense the simmering mass unrest, despite not disclosing correct poll data in time, and, thereby, mysteriously, increasing the tally! People too can sense that diabolical game this time.

A rigged election will always be called what it is – a rigged election! Perhaps, the fake prophet will not go down so easily. Perhaps, more damage will be done to the ravaged soul of India. Will he do a Trump-like Capitol Hill misadventure? Will the polls be fudged?

In that case, India might resurrect itself into a new avatar! A tiny prairie fire can light up the scorching summer sky. And the fire can spread, like a peaceful torch of hope and rebellion — from Kashmir to Kanyakumari!

India has known the theory and praxis of peaceful civil disobedience — Satyagraha, Jail Bharo, Dandi March. Like Abhimanyu’s memory in the womb, this deep memory is waiting to be rekindled. India is also the land of great revolutionaries: Ashfaqullah Khan, Ramprasad Bismil, Chandraskhekar Azad, Bagha Jatin,  Preetilata Waddeddar, Bhagat Singh, Khudiram Bose, Birsa Munda, among others – their memory is etched in our political subconscious. Indian secular democracy is precious. Its people just cannot allow it to be hijacked by fake prophets and dictators. wallowing in narcissism.

And when the dictator falls, and finds his grand finale, like Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini, the same poem will discover its own raison d’etre as well:

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but with a whimper.

For more details visit us: https://lokmarg.com/

Low Voter Turnout Helps BJP

Low Voter Turnout & Social Media Chatter Help the BJP More than Others

By LokMarg

Months before India’s ongoing parliamentary elections began on 19 April, the nearly unanimous perception was that a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi was assured; and that the only matter in question was how many of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies who make up the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would end up winning–would it be more than the 353 that it won in 2019 or would it be less.

Modi and his party proclaimed that they would aim to get more than 400 seats, an ambitious target that represents nearly 75% of the seats in Lok Sabha.

Yet, after the second phase of elections were held on 26 April, the mood began to change. India’s elections are notoriously tricky to predict because of the vast and diverse population. The nearly billion voters who are eligible to vote are so culturally, socio-economically, and ideologically diverse that it is like an agglomeration of several countries trying to democratically elect a government that would rule over them all.

Who Benefits from Low Voter Turnout?

Still, when reports showed that in the first two phases of the seven phases of voting, the turnout of eligible voters was lower than it had been in the 2019 elections, hopes soared among supporters of the Opposition and Modi’s critics. Probably, erroneously so. Official figures released by the Election Commission say that in the first phase 66.14% of voters turned up to vote (compared to 69.29% in 2019); and in the second phase, the turnout was 66.71% (compared to 69.43%). In the third and fourth phases, the turnout was a bit higher than in the first two.

Many detractors of the Modi regime read the dip in turnout as an indication of waning interest in voting for the BJP, and surmised that this could be the harbinger of good news for the INDI alliance, the NDA’s main rival and a political front made up of more than two dozen opposition parties. They could be wrong. Low turnout of voters actually helps the BJP more than any other electoral contender in India’s elections. Here’s why.

The BJP, unlike other Indian political parties such as the Congress, is a cadre-based organisation. Cadres are groups of people trained to carry out the goals of a political party and disseminate and enforce the official ideology. Such a system is most commonly prevalent in socialist or communist organisations where they are meant to spread loyalty and obedience to party rules and are responsible for mobilising citizens.

The BJP’s cadres are activated mostly during the elections. In the BJP’s well-oiled electoral machinery, cadres known as “Panna Pramukhs” play a crucial role during elections. The term Panna Pramukh translates to “page in-charge.” Here’s what it is: The concept of Panna Pramukhs was introduced by the former BJP president and current Union home minister Amit Shah, who is also Modi’s closest confidant, during the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections in Uttar Pradesh. The idea was to focus on a micro-level approach by assigning one person to each page of the local voter list.

Each Panna Pramukh is responsible for maintaining regular contact with voters whose names appear on a specific page (usually three to five families). In the run-up to the elections, Panna Pramukhs encourage voters to avail of the government’s welfare measures and help them in that effort and their duty extends until the election day when they try and ensure that the voters they are responsible for turn up and cast their votes. Panna Pramukhs are the party’s first point of contact with voters to ensure personalised communication and engagement.

Voter turnout can be low for a number of reasons: for instance, when the weather is oppressively hot and people don’t want to go out and vote; or, when there is a perception, as is likely in the ongoing elections, that there is no real contest and, therefore, an individual’s vote could have little impact on the results; or when there is no big overarching issue that mobilises people. 

In 2019, for instance, the Lok Sabha elections took place shortly after the Pulwama attack, when a convoy of vehicles carrying Indian security personnel on the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway was ambushed by a vehicle-borne suicide bomber at Lethapora in the Pulwama district of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. Forty Indian security personnel died. Analysts concluded that the incident could have spurred higher turnout of voters who were concerned about national security. As it happened, the BJP and its allies ended up with a massive victory in those elections.

This time there is no huge overriding incident such as the Pulwama attack although the widely publicised inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya could have an impact on which way some voters belonging to the majority Hindu community will lean. Yet, this election’s lower voter turnout is unlikely to impact the BJP as much as it can hit other parties because the former’s Panna Pramukhs will continue in their pro-active duties undeterred and, as a result, even if fewer voters turned up to vote, more of them would likely be voting for the BJP’s candidates rather than for their opponents. So, low voter turnout could help the BJP but not its opponents.

Who Benefits from Social Media Chatter?

In late April and early May, shortly after the first two phases of polling, there were perceptible changes in the electoral atmosphere. India’s elections are noisy, combative affairs where at public rallies, political leaders don’t pull their punches. Widely publicised video clips, distributed mainly on social media apps such as X, WhatsApp, and Facebook, showed both the BJP and its opponents getting into an aggressive mode. Modi’s speeches attacked the Congress, accusing it of following policies of redistributing wealth to appease infiltrators, construed to mean Muslims; opposition leaders, in turn, accused him and the BJP of stoking communal hatred towards minorities; and some of them, such as the Congress’ Rahul Gandhi publicly asked whether Modi was showing signs of being nervous of losing the elections.

On social media platforms, this changed perception was interpreted as a trend that the BJP and its allies were probably not faring as well as they had hoped they would. Armchair analysts proffered theories that said the ruling regime would find it hard to win a majority of seats and could fall far below what was earlier expected.

The fact is that although the numbers of Indians that use social media platforms such as X (24 million have accounts on that platform); WhatsApp (400 million); and YouTube (462 million users) are huge, there is no accurate analysis of who these users are and how much of the activity on these platforms has an influence on voting decisions.

Even so, it is the BJP that has been able to leverage social media platforms to distribute its messaging and campaigns better than any other Indian political party. Last week, the Pulitzer Center, a US-based nonprofit whose mission is “to empower a global community of journalists and media outlets to deepen engagement with critical underreported issues”, published a report titled “Inside the BJP’s WhatsApp Machine”, which analysed thousands of messages on WhatsApp to show how BJP uses the app to campaign in the closed environs of WhatsApp groups that are free from public scrutiny.

With the phenomenal growth of social media users in India, most major political parties have adopted these platforms as part of their campaign strategy during elections but none of them have been as efficient as the BJP. 

According to the Pulitzer Center report, “the scale of the BJP’s WhatsApp operations is incomparable to that of any other political party in the country”. The BJP’s WhatsApp network is vast and, according to one estimate, there are now at least a staggering five million WhatsApp groups operated by the BJP and these are capable of disseminating messages from Delhi to any part of the country within minutes.

Predicting India’s elections can be a mug’s game. In India’s past elections, number crunching psephologists and analysts have often got it wrong. Only when, in two weeks from now, all seven phases of voting are finally completed and the results come out, will we know how effective the BJP’s mighty election machine has been this time.

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‘I Am Thrilled to Become a Voice in the Grand Chorus of Democracy’

By LokMarg

Kriti Bhargava, an undergraduate at FLAME University, Pune who is pursuing a major in Public Policy and a minor in Economics, offers a first-time voter’s perspective. Her views:

As a student of public policy with a minor in economics, I find myself at a crucial juncture in my civic journey – preparing to cast my first vote in the upcoming elections. This milestone not only marks my formal entry into the democratic process but also represents an opportunity to engage critically with the policies that shape our nation’s trajectory.

Voting for the first time is an exhilarating experience filled with a sense of pride and responsibility that comes with exercising one’s democratic right. I vividly recall the anticipation and excitement leading up to the day, a feeling heightened by the guidance and support of my father, who helped me navigate the process of getting my name included in the voter’s list. What struck me most was the noticeable change in the ease of application, a seamless transition facilitated by online registration without the hassle of bureaucratic hurdles or the spectre of corruption. It’s truly a surreal moment to realize that I am now a participant in shaping the future of my country through the power of my vote, and for that, I am grateful to the government for streamlining the electoral process and making it accessible to all without discrimination or favouritism.

Over the past decade, India has witnessed a multitude of policy reforms and initiatives under the leadership of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). As I prepare to exercise my democratic right, I cannot help but reflect on the impact of these policies on the socio-economic landscape of our country.

ALSO READ: ‘Even As A First Time I Can Recount NDA Achievements’

As a student, I am particularly appreciative of the significant strides made by the government in the realm of education and human capital development through initiatives which have helped foster innovation, entrepreneurship, and academic excellence, laying a strong foundation for the future of India’s youth.

One of the cornerstones of the NDA government’s educational reforms is the New Education Policy (NEP) 2020, which aims to overhaul the traditional approach to learning in India. By emphasizing critical thinking, creativity, and multidisciplinary studies, the NEP shifts the focus away from rote memorization towards experiential learning, empowering students to explore their interests and passions.

Complementing this, the Skill India Initiative, launched in 2015, underscores the importance of skill development in enhancing employability. Through programs like the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), millions of youth are equipped with industry-relevant skills, paving the way for a workforce that is not only job-ready but also capable of driving innovation and entrepreneurship in diverse sectors.

The government’s commitment to ensuring equal access to education is evident through initiatives like the National Scholarship Portal (NSP), which simplifies the process of availing scholarships and financial aid, thereby enabling deserving students to pursue their educational goals unhindered by financial constraints. Moreover, to foster innovation and entrepreneurship among students, initiatives like Atal Tinkering Labs (ATL) and Startup India provide platforms for students to unleash their creative potential and develop solutions to real-world challenges. Not only this, the National Digital Library (NDL) democratizes access to quality educational resources in digital format, empowering students and educators nationwide to pursue academic excellence.

The upcoming elections present an opportunity for me to engage critically with the policies and governance of the past decade under the NDA government. While acknowledging the positive strides made, I remain committed to scrutinizing the government’s performance across various fronts. As I prepare to cast my vote, I am motivated by a sense of responsibility and optimism for the future of our nation. With my ballot in hand, I am eager to contribute to shaping a better, more inclusive, and prosperous India for generations to come. Getting inked is not just about selecting a button, it is about making my voice heard in the grand chorus of democracy, and I am excited to play my part in this vibrant tapestry of civic engagement.

The narrator is serving as the Batch Captain UG2 in the Student Council and has also cleared the National Defence Academy Examination (NDA/NA-149) with AIR 332

As told to Deepa Gupta

How Indian Muslims Would Vote

Elections 2024: How Indian Muslims Would Vote

By Asad Mirza

The election festival in India has started yet again and with the first phase of the mammoth exercise starting off on 19 April, the political pundits are wondering once again, how the Indian Muslims are going to vote.

If we analyse the election results of the last two general elections, then we realise that at the national level, in the past two national elections Indian Muslims at many places voted strategically, yet a party with just 35% of the vote emerged victorious.

However, it should not dishearten the Indian Muslims, they should take courage from the fact that they are standing along with the 65% of the Indian population, which stands for India’s secular credentials and values. Alas, this reality is not seen by the so-called Muslim parties, which often emerge as vote spoilers or dividers, by attracting a minuscule number of Muslims and giving an edge to anti-Muslim forces.

Data available at the Election Commission of India’s website from the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, shows that the ruling BJP won narrowly on 40 seats in the country.

Of its 303 tally, it won by less than 50,000 votes in as many 40 seats in 2019. This is usually considered a reversible margin.

This means that if the margins had been reversed, it would have taken its tally down to 263. Of these 40 narrow victories, 11 were versus the Congress party, and six against the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Biju Janata Dal. Four were versus the Trinamool Congress, two versus the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and one each against the All India United Democratic Front, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Janata Dal (Secular) and an Independent.

Moreover, fourteen of these narrow seat victories were in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. Machlishahar in U.P. has the dubious distinction of electing a BJP candidate by just 181 votes in the last elections. Overall, of its 303 seats, BJP won by less than one lakh votes on 77 seats.

In view of these facts, firstly, it should be the strategy of the secular political parties and particularly of the Muslim leaders to focus on these crucial seats and turn the tide against the anti-Muslim party. The irony is that even the parties, which were once relied upon as saviours of the Muslims like the Samajwadi and BSP, have also emerged as Muslims haters. In view of this the Muslims should vote strategically and vote for a lesser danger than the bigger danger.

Secondly, if we find our so-called leaders and parties lacking in these efforts, then the community’s intellectuals and experts, who are robustly active on various social media platforms, should persuade the Muslim voters to cast their vote positively on the D-day.

The mention of the importance of social media in today’s India, brings our attention to a recent report complied by Al Jazeera on the medium’s importance and how it is being used to spread mis- or dis-information and increasing Islamophobia among the electorate.

India has over 460 million YouTube users, making it the platform’s largest market, with four out of five Internet users in India consuming its content. Increasingly, more and more Indians are getting their news from YouTube, now a days.

The report says that most often these YouTube channels peddle mis- or dis-information in the garb of news. Some of these YouTube news channels increasingly offer a smattering of dis-information and Islamophobia, often cheerleading the ruling dispensation, while targeting its critics and opposition leaders. However, what makes these channels unique is that they claim to be ‘news’ channels, ostensibly claiming to present fact-based reportage.

These channels, though lesser known than mainstream news channels, have millions of viewers, giving them an outsized role in how the world’s largest democracy is consuming news as India prepares for its national election. Most of these channels have followers running into millions, with over billion views, a staggering and fearsome figure indeed.

With such a wide reach, concerns abound on how such ‘news’ outlets might shape perceptions and opinions, especially during the election season.

Studies have shown that Indians place greater trust in news they view on YouTube and WhatsApp, over news delivered by mainstream media outlets. Already, the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risk Report has concluded that the most severe risk India faces is the fallout from the spread of false information.

The Al Jazeera report further quotes a study done by Narrative Research Lab, a New Delhi-based data lab that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to track print media and social media content, NRL analysed the content across six channels – NMF, Rajdharma, Headlines India, Shining India, Capital TV and O News Hindi – and found that on all these channels, coverage of India’s opposition parties was muted and its leaders were rendered almost invisible. In contrast, PM Modi and the BJP loomed large, their coverage almost always glowing.

The lab analysed 2,747 videos published by these channels between December 22, 2023, and March 22, 2024. In their findings, the lab found that across all the channels, some of the most frequently used words in the titles were “Modi”, “BJP” and “Yogi”, while mentions of opposition parties and leaders were used scarcely.

A “sentiment analysis” by the lab found that while “Modi” was used commonly across videos that had both negative and positive sentiments, references to India’s opposition figures like Gandhi mostly emerged in negative phrases.

Routinely, these channels amplify Islamophobic sentiments and use anti-Muslim tropes. The Narrative Research Lab analysis also found that there was a spike in the number of videos these channels produced on events like the day the contentious Citizenship Amendment Act rules were announced on March 11.

Another issue, which haunts the journalists in this election season, is the extra vigil and precaution, which they have to exercise while covering the elections. Based on their past experiences, the journalist in a survey carried out by the US-based, CPJ – The Committee to Protect Journalists, which promotes press freedom worldwide, and defends the right of journalists to report the news safely and without fear of reprisal, said they were concerned about political violence, criminalisation of journalism, attacks by other journalists and online censorship, while covering the elections.

Overall, these elections are crucial not just in face of the daunting task carried by journalists as listed above, but are also important for the minority community to vote strategically, unitedly, unwaveringly and certainly by ensuring their presence at the polling booths on the D-day, to ensure the safety of minorities in the country, besides safeguarding the country’s constitutional and secular values,

Otherwise the foreboding messages, which currently abound on WhatsApp university may turn into a frightening reality.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior political and international affairs commentator)

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BJP Will Get Record Seats From South

BJP Will Spring A Surprise With Record Seats, Especially From South

By LokMarg

Rakesh Tripathi, spokesperson of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), claims that the party will easily achieve its target of 400-plus seats with astonishing results from southern states. His Views:

In the last elections (2019), the BJP in Uttar Pradesh won 64 seats (as against 71 in 2014) despite the Samajwadi Party and BSP coming together. This time, we are not only going to achieve better results than 2014, thanks to our additional efforts and Modi-Yogi magic. Likewise, we are not only going to sustain our strength in the states where we have a dominant presence, like Rajasthan, Haryana, MP, Uttarakhand etc., we shall improve in states like West Bengal, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana etc.

Thanks to the tedious efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and our motto of delivering what we promise, our results in the southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala will surprise our detractors. In this context, I would like to point out the commitment and the ‘thirst’ with which, for example, our Tamil Nadu state president K Annamalai is working 24×7. Besides being young and vibrant with the sole aim to serve the people and the country, he has been in politics for less than four years and he is already a youth icon, who has rattled the Dravidian ecosystem and established BJP as the primary anti-DMK force in the South.

Similarly, the chief minister of Assam, Himanta Biswa Sharma, is working effortlessly in the northeast along with others and BJP will definitely improve its figures in that region too.

The BJP delivers what it promises. Take for example, the abrogation of Article 370, the Ram Temple, triple talaq, NRC, etc. Whatever we promised in 2014 and 2019, most have been delivered and the others are in the pipeline. This time, our manifesto, which has been prepared after immense review, discussions and ideas (from grassroots level workers), has promises that we can deliver and we will deliver. Like our PM says, our vision is not 2029 but we have 2047 on our target when India will be a developed and a self-reliant country.

ALSO READ: Rahul Gandhi Is At The Last Chance Saloon

The promises made by other opposition parties in their manifesto are not more than a bunch of lies and claims which border on the weird. Take for example Rahul Gandhi’s promise of equal distribution of wealth among Indians. His `Khata khat, Khata Khat, Khata Khat idhar se udhar (from the bank accounts of the rich to the poor) is similar to his `Idhar se aloo, udhar se sona’ claim. Likewise, his wiser RJD counterpart, Tejashwi Yadav is promising Old Pension Scheme, Rs 1 lakh annually to women of poor households, discontinuing Agniveer, MSP on more crops, and other tall claims.

The Opposition is not able to find suitable candidates to contest elections against us in many states. It is evident from the ever-changing candidates and seats where no one is willing to contest. Take for example the revelations of ex-Congressman Prof Gaurav Vallabh who is now with BJP. He says that all Congressmen are advised/directed to target wealth creators and Sanatan Dharma.

A majority of Congress leaders and workers are not willing to contest elections and a stark example is that out of the 100 Congress Working Committee members, only three are contesting elections. Take for instance the seats of Rae Bareli and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. Once the two seats were Congress pocket borough; today the party is still undecided who to field from the two constituencies.

As told to Rajat Rai

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NDA Has Put India on World Map

Even As A First-Time Voter, I Can See NDA Has Put India on World Map

By LokMarg

Aditya Prakash Goel, a BCom Hons student from Sardhana, says he is excited about casting his vote for the first time and he would want NDA to return to power. His views:

This is my first experience as a voter and I am happy to be a part of the democratic exercise in this Lok Sabha elections. It feels like I am a citizen of a representative state and my vote can make a positive difference.

I believe the nation has not just changed under the current NDA rule but a new chapter of remarkable growth and fast paced development is also being written. India has showcased itself as a trend setter in the last few years. The nation has moved from the politics of hooliganism, corruption and appeasement to the politics of development, growth, unity and nationalism.

This remarkable journey has strengthened democracy in its real sense by empowering the marginalised sections of the society – from the unprivileged to underprivileged, the women and the youth. It also has been a journey of changing the Indian thought process from nothing is impossible in this country to everything is possible if the government and the people have the will and commitment to bring about a change.

The NDA rule has emphasised the motto of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishwas.

Various initiatives have been taken up by the government in the last few years that have contributed to the development of the country showcasing it globally. Some of the initiatives that show the country has progressed and stepped towards change are:

The power of JAM, Jan Dhan Yojna, Aadhar and Mobile. This trinity aims at maximizing the value of every rupee spent, empower the poor, increase technology penetration among the masses, and implement direct subsidy transfers to the poor. The government intends to use these three modes of identification to revolutionize financial inclusion in India.

The digital India initiative aims at transforming the country into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy, bridging the gap between the urban and the rural areas. The government has truly made tremendous efforts in the making of digital India making transactions cashless.

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Make in India initiative has given a rapid boost to manufacturing. It facilitates investment, fosters innovations, enhances skill development and builds the best manufacturing infrastructures. It is an effort to boost the country’s entrepreneurial energy.

The skill India mission has been initiated to create convergence across sectors and states in terms of skill training activities and promoting handwork and cultural background of the country.

Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana is a rural development programme focusing on development in villages which includes social and cultural development and motivating people towards social mobilization of the village community.

Then there is Namami Gange to arrest the pollution of the Ganga, Pradhanmantri Ujjwala Yojana providing smoke free kitchens by providing LPG connectivity to the beneficiaries, 35 crore Jandhan accounts have been opened as part of Pradhanmantri Jandhan Yojana, nearly 18,000 villages have been electrified and schemes like PM Kisan Samman Nidhi to boost agriculture.

The government has sought to create infrastructure in terms of roads and railways through highways and trains and schemes like UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) have sought to boost connectivity.

During the pandemic, the country emerged as one of the largest vaccine producing hub on the global scenario. In the last few years India has emerged as a significant economic and geo political power on the world map.

As told to Deepa Gupta

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